Analysis. Parents of Joseph Willis of Craven County, NC

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Contents

Willis Tapestry
Register
Data
Notebooks
Analysis
Bibliography
Graphics
YDNA. Willis
Index

……………………..The Tapestry
Families Old Chester OldAugusta Germanna
New River SWVP Cumberland Carolina Cradle
The Smokies Old Kentucky

__________________________

Notes

A summary of parents indicated in 630 Ancestry Family Trees, data extracted 14 Feb 2013) gives the following breakdown for kits identifying the father of Joseph Willis


Father N Percent
Charles Chowns** 1 0%
Samuel Richard Williston 1 0%
Stephen or Samuel Willis 1 0%
Samuel Willis 2 0%
John Jr. Willis 2 0%
Richard Williston 6 1%
John William Willis 11 2%
John II William Willis 19 3%
Richard Willys 37 6%
Richard Willis 53 8%
Samuel Willis 133 21%
John Willis 139 22%
unknown 225 36%
Total 630 100%


The above summary shows considerable variation in details given in various user trees. In some cases these differences are probably driven by distinct differences in opinion as to his fathers identity, but in some cases the data reflect "blends" where different users attempt to reconcile conflicting information in different ways. For example, some people give his name as "Samuel", some as "Richard" and one person splits the difference, designating him "Samuel Richard". In some cases, differences are driven by the use of different naming conventions employed in different user trees. For example, some users identify Josephs father simply as "John Willis" while others insert "Jr" into his name, and still others use the "II" designation to indicate that John's father was also "John". There are also spelling variants of the surname: Willis, Williston, and WIllys.

Some of these variations reflect the identity of Joseph's parents, while others reflect attempts to reconcile conflicting information, resulting in "alternative realities" that have no basis in fact. For example, some genealogists, faced with the problem of decifing whether Joseph's father was named "John", or "William", split the difference combining the two names as a single binomial epithet.


The problem at hand is to identify the correct name and identity of Joseph's father.T he following compressed summary helps sort some of these distinctions.

Father N* Percent
Charles Chowns 1 0%
mixed 13 2%
William 30 5%
Richard 96 15%
Samuel 135 20%
John 160 24%
Unknown 225 34%
Total 660* 100%
*The Total (660) refects more than the total number of records examined (630) because some records have been placed in more than one group (e.g., John William is included in both the totals for "John" and for "William"
**Charles Chowns is identified as the father of Joseph Willis in one record. Examination of the family tree associated with that record shows this to be a "typo".

From this it is clear that the majority of records (about 60%) in the Ancestry database identify Joseph's father as either Richard, Samuel, or John. Yet almost 40% list him as "Unknown". The overarching question here is "who really is his father". Those who placed their family tree on Ancestry each have their own opinion as to who that father was, or was not. The fact that the most common answer given in these trees is "unknown" is instructive. For them it would seem simply picking one or the other the "alternative realities" shown in these data, would not meet their needs---otherwise they would long since have chosen. Yet the odds are that one of the names given here is in fact that of Joseph's father. We, as is likely the case with those who have opted for "unknown" as his father, just don't know which alternative reality to choose.