Population Volatility in Conestoga Township, pre-1718-1826

The following discussion is based on the summary of tax data shown below. These data are based on the tax assessment records for Pequea Township, 1721-1726, as presented in Eschleman's lists (See Source above).

[edit]

Discussion

Background

The tax assessments for Conestoga Creek Township represent the persons who owed taxes in the area shortly after the formation of the township. Generally speaking, the persons oweing taxes were the individuals living on the land, not necessarily land owners. In some tax records for the period "Non-Residents" are specifically identified. Since it was the occupiers of the land that were taxed, and not the owners per se, non-resident listings probably indicate that the land was unoccupied, or occupied by paid laborers. Renters, if present, would have been responsible for the taxes themselves. "Freemen" are also commonly identified in the tax assessments, and represent non-land owning male adults (over the age of 16. [check age limit]. In the case of the Conestoga assessments, both non-residents and freemen, are listed, though in neithr case do they form a significant portion freeman of those assessed.

Population size

The following table provides a summary of the number of persons assessed in Conestoga Township for the period from sometime before 1718 and 1726. No data survives for the year 1723.

	Persons Present in Conestoga Township Tax Assessment by years
	Pre 1718	1718	1719	1720	1721	1722	1724	1725	1726
N	73	164	210	223	259	231	282	305	290
% Change	-	125	28	6	16	-11	22	8	-5

These data show a significant increase in the population of Conestoga Township over the period of the available tax assessments. The dramatic two fold increase between the pre-1718 data, and 1718 is somewhat misleading, as the data include information derived from multiple sources, and cover a span of several years.^[1] Nonetheless, it is clear that by 1718 the population was on the increase. In fact, averaging the trough (pre-1718) to peak (1725) population, and assuming that the "pre-1718" data was centered at about 1715), the average increase was still over 20%.

Volatily

"Volatility" refers to how rapidly the population changes in a community. In the case of Conestoga Township, there's clearly a significant influx of persons between 1718 and 1726. A question that may be asked is "to what extent did people who came to the Conestorga community, remain there, and to what extent was Conestoga only a waypoint on their travels. Clearly, a community that is growing in size, with a population that remains in place once it has arrived, would have a far different character than one also growing in size, but where the membership was constantly in flux, with few remaining more than a short time. We can use Eschelman's tax lists to get a feel for this question.

The following is a tabulation of the number of persons present in Conestoga Township each year, in terms of how long they remained in the community. See Conestoga Township, Lancaster, Persistence and Continuity, 1718-1726 for a discussion of how this table was developed, and its limitations. note that the totals include "interpolatons"---that is, where names are present earlier AND later, but missing in a particular year, it is assumed that the person in question was "missed" by the tax collector. Thus the population counts are sometime higher than that suggested by the original tax records.


Years Present	Sum	Pre 1718	1718	1719	1720	1721	1722	1724	1725	1726
1	497	38	17	39	38	52	41	70	97	105
2	65	0	12	17	8	23	19	9	23	19
3	77	2	11	16	20	13	10	56	53	50
4	26	2	16	17	19	19	10	8	7	6
5	30	3	12	15	18	30	29	17	14	12
6	21	1	10	13	21	21	21	20	11	8
7	24	1	10	24	24	24	24	24	22	15
8	55	3	55	55	55	55	55	54	55	52
9	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

Total	817	72	165	218	225	259	231	280	304	289